Underwater Volcano Near U.S. Coast Could Erupt by 2025, Scientists Warn

Scientists have issued a warning that the Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano off the northwest coast of the United States, is likely to erupt by the end of 2025. Standing at over 3,600 feet tall and submerged half a mile underwater, the volcano lies 300 miles off the coast of Oregon.

The prediction was made on December 10 after researchers observed swelling of the seafloor near Axial Seamount. This inflation mirrors the level recorded before the volcano’s last eruption in 2015, according to a report by Daily Mail. Additionally, seismic activity in the area has significantly increased, with over 500 earthquakes occurring daily around the volcano.

“Based on current trends and assuming Axial will erupt when it reaches the 2015 inflation threshold, our prediction window extends from now until the end of 2025,” the researchers stated in their recent study.

The team first noticed signs of increased activity in November, utilizing advanced monitoring equipment to collect real-time data on the volcano’s movements, tremors, swelling, and even shifts in its tilt.

Axial Seamount, located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, is the most active submarine volcano in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Its consistent eruption pattern provides scientists with a rare opportunity to study the precursors to volcanic activity and improve eruption forecasting techniques.

Fortunately, the eruptions of Axial Seamount pose little threat to human populations or infrastructure along the West Coast. As a shield volcano, its eruptions are typically less violent. Moreover, the seismic activity it generates is insufficient to trigger tsunamis or large earthquakes.

Tracking the Volcano’s Activity

Oregon State University geophysicist William Chadwick, who began observing Axial in November, noticed that the volcano’s surface swelling had nearly reached the level recorded before its last eruption nearly a decade ago.

Surface inflation indicates magma accumulation beneath the volcano, creating pressure that could eventually lead to an eruption. Before the 2015 eruption, similar swelling enabled Chadwick and his colleagues to successfully predict the event, marking a breakthrough in volcanic forecasting.

Since its last eruption, Axial has regained over 95% of its pre-eruption inflation levels. However, this increase has not been steady. From 2015 to 2023, the rate of inflation slowed significantly and nearly stopped by mid-2023. During this time, seismic activity also remained low.

By late 2023, both inflation and seismic activity began to rise steadily. Researchers noted a marked increase in magma influx, signaling significant changes in the volcano’s internal dynamics. By July 2024, the inflation rate had surged to about 10 inches per year and continued to climb.

These developments highlight the importance of continuous monitoring. The team’s efforts provide valuable insights into the behavior of underwater volcanoes, advancing scientific understanding of eruption forecasting.